The MERLIN Project - Reading A TimeTrak

Reading A Timetrak

How to Read a Timetrak

MERLIN was initially developed in the summer of 1989. In the fall of the same year, the collapse of the Honicker government in East Germany and subsequent dissolution of the entire Soviet Union, was MERLIN's first and most prescient call to date. The chronographs for the various East European and Balkan satellites (Romania, Albania; various heads of state, etc.) were so unstable and dramatic that we initially thought that if accurate, we were either previewing World War III or the complete collapse of Soviet Communism. Both seemed equally remote at the time. But clearly, a series of unprecedented events was at hand. Then, remarkably, the Berlin Wall fell and the Cold War ended, abruptly, with barely a whimper. MERLIN had spotted and captured what few analysts had dared to suggest. Just like that!

It was this unlikely sequence of mathematically uncommon occurrences that convinced us to press forward with our research. Our experience has been that MERLIN makes the correct call at least 70% of the time, over the course of 15 years of research, in addressing questions where a coin toss' often represents the extent of current technology.

Sample MERLIN Project Timetrak Chronograph
Miniscan Copyright © 2004 Paul Guercio and Dr. George Hart. All rights reserved.

Interpreting Merlin Timetraks®

The MERLIN chronograph or Timetrak® is a composite image that is made up of two separate time models. The solid or darker portion of the display is often reflective of EXTERNAL objective realities, when applied to an individual. It indicates factors such as their career, status or living situation. The shaded or lighter portion reflects more INTERNAL subjective concerns, for example health or emotional matters. Analogous factors can often be applied even to countries or projects and situations, where a meaningful reference can be drawn. An example might be the strength of the fabric of a society as compared to say, it's GDP or domestic output.

There can also be another dimension to these shading differences. The solid or darker portion of the display generally identifies the level of culminating long-term cyclic activity. It represents factors affecting the situation that have a structural or `fixed' quality. The kind of conditions we generally think of as 'fate.' The shaded or lighter portion generally indicates the level of cumulative short-term activity. It represents factors that have a less stable, more `fluid' quality. These are the kinds of conditions we associate with consciousness-driven circumstance or `free will.' Heightened eventfulness most often occurs when both patterns appear simultaneously or when one gives way to the other.

In general, MERLIN isolates "episodic periods," that is, a chain of activity containing a "peak" and surrounded by approaching and departing "foothills." The most dramatic chain and peak usually marks the most significant
series of events. A single, very intense but short-lived episode can be indicated by an isolated spike of activity. When this occurs, there is often very little activity indicated in the year preceding or following that episode.

Rapid changes in the character of the trendline are generally more telling than subtle changes. For example, the height of the line is a good indication of probable intensity. This can be substantially reinforced by how dramatically the height is achieved or conversely, how rapidly it decays (within how limited a timeframe does the change occur.) Always note the sudden drops or sudden spurts. Key change or transition points are marked by sudden shifts from one kind of line to another, the sudden (temporary) appearance of a different kind of line, which then reverts back to the original; the beginning of a line that then persists or the end of such a line. These and certain other patterns, signal separate episodic periods.

The "point of appearance" of change is for many users the most noteworthy factor followed by the duration. The intensity of the change is generally relative to the level of activity displayed within that entire chronograph and provides highly useful information about the scope of change to come.

Change points are always approximate, but generally fall within 90 to 180 days of the actual, real-time events. In its current form, MERLIN performs at a high level of accuracy better than 70% of the time. That may seem like barely a passing grade to some, unless you stop to consider that the alternative (at present) is most often, mere guesswork.

NOTE: At present, the software alone does not make specific predictions regarding the precise nature of a forthcoming event or episode. And, it cannot provide a detailed forecast of the actual circumstances to occur. Those forecasts require review by an experienced analyst with a solid working knowledge of the cast of characters and overall context of the situation. Also, a minimum of (3) MERLIN Timetraks® that represent the key players or factors in the situation under consideration are typically required for the most precise time-sensitive forecasts. This triangulation permits common points of convergence in the trendlines to be isolated, noted and interpreted with a high degree of confidence. In such cases, a better than 75% accuracy rate has been demonstrated in over 15 years of high-visibility research. (Source: CNN, NBC, NPR)

Onset + Intensity + Duration

MERLIN Timetraks® provide a picture of three time-sensitive functions: onset, intensity and duration.

Onset means the point of appearance of uncharacteristic activity or heightened eventfulness (within 90-180 days of real time.) It represents the time coordinates in a chronograph, where there is a pronounced restructuring in the character of the trendline or where a clearly defined episode begins.

Intensity means the value of the trendline at a particular time-interval, relative to the average level of activity present in that chronograph.

Duration means the extent of a given episode; how long does the trendline demonstrate significant activity. How long will a given episode (or portion of an episode) last.

Copyright© 2004 by Paul Guercio and Dr. George Hart. All rights reserved

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